LAB EXPERIMENT: an analysis from the lab, not a tinychase data product. The findings here are the experiment's own, and where a model is used the output is the model's, not a measurement.

Lab · the forecaster on real storms

The Tiny Forecaster, live

Storm

Issued at

Wind the model had seenWhat came afterExpected wind10th to 90th percentile

Where the model looked. Attention from the issue step back over the 72 hours it was given, second block, averaged over heads; darker is more weight.

72 h earlierissue step

Scorecard

By storm, 24 hours

Mean error of the expected wind against persistence, over every issue step of the storm that has a verifying fix.